I decided to Google out a “Love Obama” forum on the internet and get into it under cover, slowly bringing my real views about after starting by spouting the kind of crap that I usually hear from them. At about 9:00 a. m. on Wednesday, October 8, 2008, the thread started like this:
McFibber even though we admire his military carrier, as president he would stink. Grant, Teddy Roosevelt, D W Eishenhouser all military heros, all stunk as president. J F Kennedy was a military hero but his term was too short judge. G H W Bush, was shot down like McCain but rescued, he was no diamond in the rough either. But he did not stink, just a strange odor.
There were a couple of generic rhetorical commenters, and then an anonymous “Commenter,” from Wangnimni, Korea (And, I don’t hold you at fault if you do not read his complete opinion. He’s a little long-winded.):
Obama Must Campaign Outside of Philadelphia 5-County Region
Obama could lose Pennsylvania, much like John Kerry lost Ohio, if he does not begin campaigning outside of the core vote area of Philadelphia 5-county region. Kerry carried 4 of these 5 and lost Chester County by 10,000 votes.
If you look at counties at the margin by number of votes lost in 2004, the critical counties are those John Kerry carried more than 40% of the vote, total votes cast more than 50,000 and won or lost county by less than 11,000 votes.
This leaves you with head to head battle ground in 17 Counties. The goal should be for Obama/Biden to carry 9 of these. As the Democratic Party strengths are in the East and that major media markets of New York City and Philadelphia have coverage in Lehigh Valley, the Greater Lehigh Valley is the key area as it contains 6 of the 17 counties that were not carried by large margins and the criteria I set forth above by either candidate in 2004.
This will leave you with major battle for votes at the margin, in order of importance: Lehigh, Northampton, Berks, and Schuylkill, Monroe, and Carbon counties.
If you now look at fundraising level, you get an interesting picture of how close PA truly is. After removing fundraising of counties that have raised the most money and who John Kerry carried in 2004 (Philadelphia, Allegheny, Montgomery, Delaware, and Lackawanna), you are left with a near dead heat in fundraising. Obama $1.355 million, McCain 1.358 million. McCain is carrying key counties of the greater Lehigh Valley, in fund raising margin. This includes Lehigh ($147,000), Northampton ($41,000), Monroe ($1000), Carbon ($3,800), and Schuylkill ($3000). Obama only leads in fund raising in Berks ($8000). This gives McCain an almost $190,000 fund raising edge in the greater Lehigh Valley.
If one looks at how you carry Pennsylvania, Obama is off track. The reliance on the Rendell strategy and team could cost him an important state, much like Kerry who engaged in under campaigning in Akron and Columbus areas in Ohio in 2004 and focusing on core region of Cleveland. The Rendell team has Obama locals making the same fundamental mistake of focusing on the Philadelphia, Montgomery, Delaware core region.
Obama must get into these counties and particularly a heavy campaigning presence in the greater Lehigh Valley (Lehigh, Northampton and its near/bordering counties of Berks, Monroe, Carbon and Schuylkill) if he is to carry Pennsylvania. There is a reason that McCain abandoned Michigan early, they are coming full strong to carry Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. You can not win the Presidency if you lose all three of these traditional industrial areas. The key to carrying two of the three are to campaign in Columbus, OH and Allentown, PA. Obama needs to spend the next three weeks principally in these two cities and their surrounding suburbs.
PS- On a side note, this is how Governorships are made or lost. Don Cunningham becomes the key to this strategy and not the local Congressional candidate or County Party leaders. Cunningham has to unite the Lehigh Democratic Party machine and position himself as the guy who can deliver votes in the Lehigh Valley. If he does this, his election for Governorship will be locked up in 2010 because he will have party machines of Lehigh Valley, Scranton and Philadelphia behind him. You can not lose when you have all 3. I am undecided if Governor Cunningham would be a good or a bad thing.
Projected Number of Visits by Obama/Biden (Man Days)
Greater Lehigh Valley Region (6) Total Visits 14
Lehigh (GLV)– Allentown 5 Visits
Northampton (GLV)– Bethlehem/Easton 5 Visits
Berks (GLV)– Reading 1 Visits
Monroe (GLV)– Stroudsburg 1 Visits
Schuylkill (GLV)– Pottsville/Hazleton 1 Visit
Carbon (GLV)– Jim Thorpe/Lehighton 1 Visit
Total Visits YTD- 0
# Visits to Complete Yet 14
Goal: Rally in Allentown (5), Bethlehem (4), Easton (1), Reading (1), East Stroudsburg (1), Pottsville (1), Jim Thorpe (1)
October 15 – November 1
Philadelphia 5 County Region 16 Total Visits
Bucks (SE)– Bristol 3 Visits
Chester (SE)– Chester/West Chester 3 Visits
Total Visits YTD- 7
# Visits to Complete Yet 9
Goal: Bristol (3), West Chester (2), Chester (1), Philadelphia (3 – Night Fundraisers/1 Day Rally)
Lackawanna Valley Region/Scranton 1 Total Visit
Luzerne (NE)– Wilkes-Barre 1 Visit
Total Visits YTD- 4
# Visits to Complete Yet 0
West (6)– Total Visits 10
Erie (NW)– Erie 2 Visit
Beaver (SW)– Beaver, Aliquippa 4 Visits
Washington (SW)– Washington 1 Visit
Total Visits YTD- 7
# Visits to Complete Yet 3
Goal: Erie (2), Washington (1)
Central (2) Total Visits 2
Centre – State College/Penn State 1 Visit
Dauphin – Harrisburg 1 Visit
Total Visits YTD- 0
# Visits to Complete Yet 2
Goal: State College (1), Harrisburg (1)
Core Area – 26 Total Visits (Night Fund Raising)
Philadelphia 5 County Visits 16
Allegheny County l Visits 10
Total Visits YTD- 14
# Visits to Complete Yet 12
Woah, that’s a lot of opinion about our politics from the other side of the globe! And, then this came from a gentleman who actually wrote from Pennsylvania, called Flavious_Maximus:
Get ready for an extreme radical black nationalist bisexual President of the United States. All you liberal democrats who think Obama is going to usher in a new age utopia are just committing suicide. You will be the first to be put up against the wall and shot by his Marxist revolutionaries when he turns the country towards communism.
FM, don’t sugar-coat it. Tell us what you think, buddy. He was of course, put down exactly like you would expect. This is when I decided to play. Under the moniker “Blue Colt,” I decided to make my move. I thought the double meaning of my handle was clever and humorous. I posted this comment in my best impersonation of a moonbat:
I’m just glad to see that Obama is doing so well in the polls! It’s funny that nobody has ever asked me to take a poll, though. The bottom line is this – all of these wingnuts need to quit clinging to their bibles and guns and vote for Change. Good grief, the last thing we need in this country is another 4-years of Bush!
I got no responses. There was noise and activity, but it was dull and lacked direction. So, I tried again in response to a jab at Asher:
It’s true! Bob Asher IS a convicted felon! Look it up! We need to extend the vote to Korea so Comment can vote for Obama as well.
Still no responses to The Blue Colt. There were multiple duplicate slams against our friend Flavious from various posters, but no attention to The Colt. Several people mentioned the thing that McCain said about the Fed buying up bad home mortgages (which is worth discussing, given the implications), but nothing substantial beyond childish “nya nya” -ing. This is when I lost patience and decided to hit them with it:
I like the fact that Obama knows that American people are not smart or responsible enough to budget for their medical needs, energy needs, or housing. He realizes that the average American is stupid, irresponsible, unresourceful, and needs leadership that will tell them what to do. When asked about turning thermostats a little warmer over the hot Summer for energy conservation, GWB’s typically stupid response was “I think the American People are smart enough to do that on their own if their electric bill is too high.” It’s nice that we have a candidate that doesn’t think so much of us. I know that I’ll be glad to have a President that knows what’s best for me.
Forty-two minutes later, “Not Over” opined:
It’s not over til it’s over. The McCain campaign has to contend the election somewhere. If resources are pulled out of Michigan, they can’t be pulled out of Pennsylvania, too. He has to wave the flag or contributions will dry up and Republicans farther down the ticket will suffer. Maybe that’s deserved, but that’s for the voters to decide.
If it were up to me, I’d send a whole new team down to Washington. Enough’s enough!
*Cricket chirp, cricket chirp* That is a summary of the activity as of 12:30, at the 24th post.
3:45 update: No further activity. I scanned some of the other threads in the same forum, but no mention of Blue Colt. Maybe I’m just paranoid.
4:30 update: No further activity. I close with this comment:
When Obama is in charge, and he is justifying the increased taxation with a reach-around to the middle class, can we still consider that soft-stuffing as being screwed? The general opinion of the Left certainly seems to be “no.” I just don’t see how this guy has any means to relate to “the common man” with his aloof, elitist attitude, and his “you can’t handle it without us” rhetoric. If you buy into his Marxist/Carter-ish plans, vote for him I suppose. I’m not in much of a hurry to repeat the Carter years or to live under a Communist government. I had hoped to see some more action on this forum, but I suppose I was hoping for too much. If you people were really analytical and intelligent, you would not be on this side of it.
UPDATE 10/9/08, 1313: More activity detected – my comments ignored. Next time, I may try the daily kooks.